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Nokia hasn't exactly been a watertight corporate ship when it comes to their first ever full touchscreen phone, the Nokia Tube. First spotted way back last summer, it's been seen in The Dark Knight, at tiresome marketing conventions and in fan sites the world over. But is it really the Apple beating marvel we've been led to believe. Let us give you the lowdown.
It's no iPhone beaterAt first, it looked like this could finally be Nokia's touchscreen answer to the iPhone. Alas, leaks of the so-called Tube, or 5800 XpressMusic to give it its real title, suggest it will actually be a mid-range blower. Why? Well with Nokia the biggest player in the mobile world, they reckon they can turn average Joe's onto touchscreen tech and build from the bottom. And there's a good chance it'll work.It won't be multitouchBeing mid–range, Nok has said it won’t come with the same multitouch tech you find in the iPhone. Instead, you can expect the Symbian S60 Touch system to use haptic feedback, just like the LG Viewty and Samsung Tocco. That means you’ll be able to tell when you’ve hit the screen – but you won’t be able to twist pics with your fingers,It'll do over-the-air downloadsNokia Comes With Music is set to take off this winter, and you can bet your entire gadget collection that the 5800 XpressMusic will be one of a string of handsets toting the subscription store. That means you’ll be able to grab as much music as you like from the every major label except EMI. And you can be sure that any downloads you want to snag will wing their way to you using 3G, especially with rival O2 launching their own tie–up with Sony BMG earlier this month.It won't cost the earthBeing your regular mid–level Nok, the Tube will almost certainly come free on contract. And we’re not talking an iPhone 3G–style deal, where you have to pony up £45 every month for the privilege of having the phone in your pocket. Plus, it won’t be shackled to one network, giving Nokia the chance to work their magic and get it into every mobile–loving mitt in the country.It’ll take touchscreen to the massesBecause it’s not taking the iPhone on, Nok can afford to let the Tube go for cheap. And because of that (and it’s sharp styling if its appearance in The Dark Knight is anything to go by), everyone will want to get on the bandwagon. And as soon as everyone understands how touchscreens really work (we’re talking your Mum and Dad rather than us gadget geeks), then Nok will take over the world. Don’t count against it.For more on the Nokia Tube, make sure you keep your eyes on Stuff.tv. We’ve already got a full preview, with hot news coming very soon.
Contracts with Nokia, Samsung, LG, Medtronic, VW, BMW, Microsoft, Sony & 3M’s touch screen division to name a few.
Enjoys over $4.00 in cash per share and 25+% growth year over year, 700+ patents in the area of haptic (leader in tactile feedback) technology. Majority of business is outside of the United States. Beneficiaries from haptics include consumer electronics, automotive and critical application training environments.
Consumer electronics are purchased / upgraded when new features become available to the consumer. The touch screen revolution has inadvertently removed the tactile sensation of depressing a button (Immersion’s haptic patents address the lack of tactile feedback). Touch screens provide greater screen geography and when manufactured in quantity there should be a reduction in production cost: Combined with the ease of reprogramming the look of the finished product. These two aspects suggest the consumer will be offered touch screen devices if they like the interface or not. Strategy Analytics projects 40% of all cell phones will use touch screens by 2012.
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Immersion’s Mobility Division is a perfect storm. In December 2006 Immersion’s Vibetonz technology was used in only 5 cellular telephones. Current count is more than 50 cell phones. The www.vibetonz.com web site is managed by Immersion Corporation however it is not updated as quickly as the new phones hit the market. The New LG “Dare” and Samsung “Instinct” are examples of commercially available products not listed.
The convergence of MP3 and Digital Video players, Digital Cameras, Navigation Devices, Televisions and Mobile Internet with Instant Messaging, Text Messaging and Cellular Telephones fuels the need for increased screen geography. The pull of increased screen geography for these pocket sized mobility devices drives the need for haptics.
July 3rd 2007 Nokia the 800 pound Gorilla of the Cell Phone industry signed on with Immersion and will be shipping the first of many Vibetonz phones in the U.S. during the second half of 2008. First Quarter 2008 Nokia enjoyed a 39.1% world wide market share. During an earlier Immersion conference call Vic Viegas of Immersion said Nokia’s pricing structure has discounts for volume to encourage a greater installed base of Vibetonz enabled phones. I anticipate (pure speculation on the author’s behalf) a deluge of Nokia touch screen phones on the market by year end. If I am correct (?) this could easily translate into fifty million units sold in 2008.
Samsung ranked #2 and LG #4 on the list of cell phone makers are licensees of Immersion’s Patents. Their products make up most of the products listed on the www.vibetonz.com web site. Samsung recently replaced Motorola in the #2 position and LG’s Voyager was last Christmas’s iPhone killer. Mobility licensing revenues increased by 1000+% over 2006; granted 2007 enjoyed the beginnings of the touch screen revolution and 2006 numbers were small…..never the less the 2007 trend is difficult to debunk. Call me a “Pump and Dump” promoter but in my mind 2008 growth is bound to impress.
The 2007 Immersion Annual Report states on page 4 of the .pdf; “In February 2008, we announced that 10 million mobile phones with Vibetonz Technology have been shipped by our licensees, including over 5.5 million shipped in 2007” If you recall my earlier remarks concerning the number of Vibetonz enabled phones listed on the www.vibetonz.com web site in December 2006….I think it is a conservative estimate to say that the first 6 weeks of 2008 equates to close to 4 million units. The touch screen volume exploded following the introduction of the iPhone and the majority of the cell phones sold prior to the iPhone release loaded with Vibetonz were specialty “Gaming” phones. Do the Math!!! 2008 numbers should be much stronger than the street expects and remember licensing revenue is pure profit.
The Apple iPhone 3G hardware appears (?) to be loaded with the Immersion approved actuator. If you read the recent Walter Mossberg iPhone 3G write up in the Wall Street Journal. Mossberg states the iPhone 3G has the ability to provide variable frequency haptics when playing a game. It is my belief (not shared by everyone) that Apple and Immersion have not agreed on price….otherwise we would hear more about this alliance. A friend suggested an alternate method of creating the feel of variable frequency haptics by starting and stopping the actuators rotations. Granted this would be a sleazy work around but the trickery might satisfy the unsophisticated investor. Perhaps a wireless wizard might help us mortals?
3M touch screen division (applications includes casino gaming, ATM’s, Kiosks and waiter and waitress stations). As of the third quarter 2007 “thousands of units shipped” to quote Immersion Chairman Victor Viegas in the 2nd Quarter 2007 conference call. My interpretation is sales are ramping up as old inventory at 3M is exhausted. May 29th 2008 3M Touch Systems received top honors from Casino Journal because adding haptics to new and old video slots improves the user experience.
2.) Medtronic and Immersion’s Medical division are distributing Immersion Medical simulation products. In 2008 Immersion is attending over 30 trade shows. Current product offerings include (list is incomplete):
a. Endoscopy AccuTouch® System
b. Endovascular AccuTouch® System
c. LapVR™ Surgical Simulator (Laproscopy)
d. Virtual I.V. Self-Directed Learning System
e. InsightArthroVR™ arthroscopy surgical simulator
f. SimCapture medical simulation training management
The Medical Division harvests the great Einstein quote, “Linear thinking is the slave and intuition is the gift; society honors the slave and ignores the gift”. The Medical community is now recognizing great doctors not only need to pass the required written tests but they must also be capable of snaking a catheter through a vein deep inside a human body. As a Chiropractor friend said to me, “there is no guarantee an “A” student possesses the physical dexterity to properly adjust a patient’s lower back”. Immersion’s Medical Division produces numerous simulators to bridge the gap between the left brain theoretical practice and right brain practical exercise while reducing malpractice claims and worse. My limited research suggests Medical schools are now taking an interest in simulators and this Immersion Division is positioned to benefit from this trend. Lastly Immersion is pursuing legal action against a competing Medical Simulation Device provider for Patent infringement. Morgan Chu http://www.irell.com/professionals-22.html will again pursue the wrong doers for Immersion. In Morgan Chu we trust!.
Written by a long time Immersion Stock Holder, I have been following this story since 2002 and never has the stock been a better buy, in my honest opinion. Please do your own due diligence, and consult a broker before making any investment decision.
jploos@yahoo.com
